수도권 주야간보호센터 공급의 공간적 불균형 분석 : 소득 구조에 의한 역공급 패턴의 실증과 돌봄 형평성 구조

초록

This study examines spatial imbalance in adult day care center supply and inverse provision patterns across 66 districts in the Seoul metropolitan area. Using 2024 data, four supply indicators were constructed, and OLS was adopted via Moran's I and LM tests, with SEM, SDM, and GWR supplementarily applied. Health insurance premiums per capita show a significant negative effect, confirming an inverse provision pattern consistent with Tudor Hart's Inverse Care Law, robust after controlling for population density. Separately, the share of older adults living alone is positively associated with supply — not as an Inverse Care Law effect, but as a counter-mechanism where private providers partially respond to demand absent family care. These findings reveal a dual inverse provision structure, indicating equity limitations and the need for demand-driven public intervention.

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