Maximum-Likelihood Estimation for the Zero-Inflated Polynomial-Adjusted Poisson Distribution

초록

We propose the zero-inflated Polynomially Adjusted Poisson (zPAP) model. It extends the usual zero-inflated Poisson by multiplying the Poisson kernel with a nonnegative polynomial, enabling the model to handle extra zeros, overdispersion, skewness, and even multimodal counts. We derive the maximum-likelihood framework-including the log-likelihood and score equations under both general and regression settings-and fit zPAP to the zero-inflated, highly dispersed Fish Catch data as well as a synthetic bimodal mixture. In both cases, zPAP not only outperforms the standard zero-inflated Poisson model but also yields reliable inference via parametric bootstrap confidence intervals. Overall, zPAP is a clear and tractable tool for real-world count data with complex features.

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