민주주의의 퇴행과 청년세대 포퓰리즘: 2024년 계엄과 탄핵안 부결 전후 횡단면 비교 분석

초록

This study examines the effects of President Yoon Suk-yeol’s unconstitutional declaration of martial law in December 2024, and the subsequent failure of the National Assembly’s impeachment vote, on populist attitudes among South Korean youth (ages 18–39). Because a survey already underway at the time of the martial law declaration happened to straddle the exogenous event of the failed impeachment vote, a pre-post cross-sectional comparison design emerged, enabling comparison between a pre-failure group (n = 683) and a post-failure group (n = 366). The analysis yields two core findings. First, when the institutional mechanism designed to check democratic backsliding—the National Assembly’s power of impeachment— failed to function, populist attitudes among youth increased significantly. This rise in populism was accompanied by declining satisfaction with democracy, a weakened perception of social fairness, and heightened negative partisanship toward the party (People Power Party) that blocked the impeachment. Second, despite this increase in populism, scores on the anti-pluralism index actually declined. This represents a qualitatively distinct pattern from the fusion of populism and anti-pluralism observed in Western Europe, suggesting that youth populism in South Korea is not a rejection of democracy itself, but rather a demand for democratic correction in response to the failure of representative democracy.

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