Data-Driven Prediction of Rebar Corrosion Parameters in Mortar and Simulated Pore Solution Using Optimised Extreme Gradient Boosting Models

초록

This study presents two independently optimised Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) regression models, one for predicting corrosion current density (icorr) and one for predicting corrosion potential (Ecorr) parameters of carbon steel rebar embedded in mortar and immersed in simulated pore solution. An experimental dataset consisting of 216 measurements was curated from a systematic potentiodynamic scan study covering six chloride contamination levels, two carbonation states (non-carbonated and carbonated), four moisture conditions for mortar (65%, 85%, 95% relative humidity, and submerged), and three conditioning durations for simulated pore solution (36 h, 72 h and 20 days). Hyperparameters of the XGBoost models were optimised using a Bayesian optimisation framework with the Tree-structured Parzen Estimator (TPE) sampler over 300 trials. Model performance was assessed using 5-fold cross-validation and a random 80:20 train-test split. The optimised models achieved cross-validation R2 scores of 0.936 and 0.953 for icorr and Ecorr, respectively. On the hold-out test set, R2 values of 0.933 and 0.945 were obtained with test RMSE values of 0.2 log10(& micro;A/cm2) and 41.9 mV, respectively. The contribution of each input feature to model predictions was quantified and visualised using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) methodology. SHAP analysis reveals that chloride content has the highest impact on icorr, followed by carbonation state and the low-humidity condition, while for Ecorr, chloride content and the Submerged condition have the greatest impact. An interactive web application was developed using Streamlit, enabling researchers and practitioners to obtain corrosion parameter predictions. The findings provide data-driven insights into the relative importance of environmental factors governing rebar corrosion, with direct implications for the development of accurate corrosion prediction models for reinforced concrete service life assessment.

키워드